A practice in the science of complexity
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| Thinking: | Tjurunga on complexity | Reference books | Complexity sites | |
An annotated list of recent articles by Tjurunga principals, Dr Roger Bradbury and Bohdan Durnota, on understanding complexity and using it to solve practical problems in science, business and public policy. The list is divided into the following sections:
This paper looks at the question of prediction in complex adaptive systems, such as economies and ecosystems. It concludes that the best models of complex adaptive systems will be other complex adaptive systems themselves. It also concludes that the notion of prediction needs to be replaced for these systems by the notion of exploration. The paper was presented at a plenary address to the International Society of Ecological Economics in Canberra on 8 July 2000. The text here is the conference draft and will be revised before publication.
The way we deal with the oceans depends greatly on the way we perceive them. Perhaps we may think of the oceans as ultimately simple, once the confusion and chaos are stripped away - systems driven by simple natural laws, and hence ultimately reducible, understandable, knowable. Alternatively, we may think of the oceans as irreducibly complex, not mysteriously or mystically complex, instead rich in interactions, structure and contingency, steeped in historicity - organic, evolved - and hence knowable but not necessarily predictable. This paper explores these ideas in the context of developing an oceans policy using the theory of complex adaptive systems. It was delivered as the Distinguished Lecture to open the Oceanology International 99 Conference in Singapore on 27 April 1999.
The physical and biological complexity of the ocean is paralleled by the complexity of the social and economic regimes governing it. This paper explores the potential of using modern complexity theory to provide an integrated understanding of oceans governance. It was published in 2000 in Oceans Governance and Maritime Strategy edited by David Wilson and Dick Sherwood (Sydney, Allen & Unwin).
This opening address to the Tools for an uncertain world symposium at the Greenhouse Beyond Kyoto Conference in Canberra in April 1998 is a companion paper to an earlier one of the same name. It was an opportunity to explore further the idea that complexity, in and of itself, changes the way science understands the future and the notion of prediction, and that this changes the way we used models and simulation to develop scenarios about possible futures.
The theory of complex adaptive systems turns many scientific notions on their head, especially those to do with prediction and the determination of the future states of systems. This paper explores the consequences of this thinking for the basic scientific notions of deduction and induction, prediction and causality in complex biological and social systems. The paper was given at a conference on futures in Canberra in December 1997.
When the idea of complex adaptive systems meets the idea of memes - the stunning and controversial idea that ideas themselves can be thought of in terms of Darwin’s theory of evolution - new insights emerge about how human systems work. This new synthesis was first sketched at a Bureau of Rural Sciences staff conference in 1997.
The opening address to the Third Biennial Australian Complex Systems Conference in Albury in July 1996 was an opportunity to exhort researchers to make their emerging science more relevant to mainstream science and society, and avoid the fate of their General Systems Theory forebears - extinction. The paper is also published in the web journal, Complexity International.
This short talk to the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service Ballast Water Exchange Verification Workshop in Melbourne in March 1998 looks at the question of verification of ballast water exchange as a complex systems issue. It argues that this changes the way we handle the evidence and the way we understand it.
The issue of what sort of models for what sort of problems is the subject of this paper, which explores the issue in the context of complexity theory. It was the opening address to the Conference on Climate Prediction for Agricultural and Resource Management jointly sponsored by the (then)Bureau of Resource Sciences, the University of New South Wales and the Australian Academy of Science in May 1997.
In this keynote address to the Annual Conference of the Mapping Sciences Institute, we explore what a modern day Mappa Mundi, a map of everything, would look like. We argue that, using complexity thinking, the project is, at last, realisable, and that one of its most important uses will be in sustainable development. The paper was given in Canberra in September 1996.
This essay, based on an earlier talk called Mapping Mt Surprise, is a general introduction to the importance of the idea of complexity in the sustainable development debate. It was published in the English, French and Spanish editions of the UNESCO flagship Nature & Resources in October 1998.
The title of this paper derives from a famous paper by G E Hutchinson who exhorted ecologists to look over their disciplinary fences. Here it is the lessons to be learned from the Bovine Spongiform Encephalitis (BSE) outbreaks in Britain as they might apply to the Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) issue in Australia. The lessons revolve around what is meant by risk. This is the text of an unpublished talk given to the Workshop on RCD and Rabbits in April 1997.
Modern GIS-based decision support systems are helping to bring clarity to the often-contentious issue of land use. This paper describes the way in which the Bureau of Rural Sciences system, called TRACS, is being used in ways which integrate natural science and social science perspectives on land use, and permit the creation and exploration of alternative land use scenarios. The paper was given to the Multiple and Sequential Land Use Technical Symposium in Canberra in December 1996.
A critique, drawing on both ecology and complex systems theory, of the careless use of so-called indicators in the analysis of sustainable development issues. The paper was given to the Fenner Conference on the Environment in Sydney in October 1996
Some religions persecute it, others ape it. Some governments prosecute it, others put it in the Cabinet. The 'it', of course, is science. But just what is 'it' that causes poets to complain that it banishes beauty, New Agers to proclaim that it does not know the real secrets of the universe. Even scientists seem mixed up: science festivals turn it into a brief media event; professors turn it into a lifetime of study. The paper explores, in a light-hearted way, just what science really is, why priests, poets and politicians need to beware, and especially why New Agers need to get real. It was given, under the title 'Subversive science', at the Australian Science Festival in Canberra on 8 May 1999. It drew a strong response, both for and against, judged by the letters to the Canberra Times during the following three weeks. It was later published in the UNESCO journal Nature & Resources.
The idea that social science is the exploration of the intellectual territory between science and the humanities is the focus of this paper. It describes economics and psychology as two largely unsuccessful expeditions into this unknown territory, and argues that the development of the modern theory of complex adaptive systems will allow these enterprises to be restarted and allow the extension of science into new regions. The paper was given to the International Symposium on Learning Communities, Regional Sustainability and the Learning Society in Launceston in June 1998.
This short talk was given as the University of Wollongong Occasional Address on the occasion of the Science and Education Faculties graduation ceremony in Wollongong in April 1998. It discusses the importance of intellectual ideas in the context of the evolution of culture.
Complexity ideas force us to take another look at the fundamental concepts and history of ecology. This essay, published in the prestigious German journal Senckenbergiana maritima in 1996, was first read at a conference on theoretical ecology in Wilhelmshaven.
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Last modified 16 August 2001